Obesity levels are increasing worldwide. Spain is one of the most affected countries: in 2050, children under 14 years of age will be in fourth place worldwide and almost half will be overweight.
Our lifestyle determines what we will be in a few decades: six out of ten adults and a third of children and adolescents will be overweight or obese in 2050. The estimates made by a global group of experts put the emphasis on the fuse of future diseases: obesity is the key that ignites cases of type 2 diabetes, cardiometabolic disorders and even cancer.
The work published today in The Lancet magazine shows that in the last 30 years, the figures for excess weight in the population have been alarming at a global level. And not only because of the number of adults but also because of the impact on the new generations , with clear increases in the child population, including the Spanish one.
This new analysis estimates that prevalence grew substantially between 1990 and 2021, doubling in both children and younger adolescents (from 8.8% to 18.1%) and older adolescents (from 9.9% to 20.3%), affecting 493 million young people in 2021. Similarly, obesity rates in children and adolescents tripled from 2% to nearly 7% , and in 2021, 174 million young people were living with obesity.
“The unprecedented global epidemic of overweight and obesity is a profound tragedy and a monumental societal failure,” said lead author Professor Emmanuela Gakidou of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in a statement.
At the same time, the research has a predictive aspect to focus on, because these are figures that still have time to be reversed. Overweight during childhood and adolescence will stabilise between 2021 and 2050 as a greater number of people in all regions of the world become obese, and significant increases are expected until 2030, which will continue beyond 2031 until 2050.
How do obesity predictions affect our country?
If we focus on our country, obesity appears as an emerging problem. In the predictions for 2050 we are in the top 10 countries with high incomes with an impact on the new generations from 5 to 25 years old . “We are not among the countries with a red light, but we are among the orange ones, which is worrying,” warns Marta Castell, coordinator of the Gastroenterology and Nutrition Working Group of the Spanish Association of Primary Care Pediatrics (AEPap).
And it puts it into context because the traffic light only warns us: «The ALADINO study that was published at the end of 2024 shows us a stabilization in terms of overweight and childhood obesity rates in Spain compared to the previous work in 2019. But we are at very high values above what would be appropriate». For this reason, Castell urges the implementation of preventive actions: « We would have to be careful if we do not implement effective policies , because the trend is upwards throughout the world».
This study showed that 36.1% of Spanish children were overweight (20.2% overweight and 15.9% obese). Projections for 25 years from now in The Lancet analysis for our children imply growth of up to 47% in children between 5 and 14 years old; 48% between 15 and 25; and 77% for those over 25 years old.
Castell mentions that it is important to bear in mind that the BMI, which is what the article is based on to create the metrics, is not everything in obesity. Recently, in the same publication it was made clear that neither the number on the scale nor the BMI are definitive and that obesity “has been wrongly defined as such” compared to what is important to experts: “The clinical impact of the numbers: whether there are associated diseases. And this is very important when we are talking about children in stages of growth and change,” Castell stresses.
It is also important to find a way to put the brakes on the predictions of the analysis. “We must bear in mind that obesity is multifactorial, it is not one but many ,” stresses Cristobal Morales, specialist in Endocrinology and Nutrition at Vithas Sevilla Hospital.
Pediatrician Castell points to three axes: “The nutrition of the youngest children is conditioned by the accessibility of the shopping basket in their homes. Physical activity should be greater in schools and there should be public policies that promote active and accessible leisure for all children, with safe public spaces. All of this supported by a responsible use of screens.”
Perhaps, in our country, children and adults have moved away from the pillars of the Mediterranean diet (also from the Atlantic, more from the north of the country), as Castell points out. “We don’t eat as a family or cook like our grandparents and great-grandparents did in the past,” admits the pediatrician, who blames both the pace of life and underlying socioeconomic issues.
Globally, more children aged 5–14 years are projected to be living with obesity compared to those who are overweight by 2050 (16.5% vs. 12.9%), while in women (5–24 years) and older men (15–24 years), overweight is expected to remain more prevalent than obesity.
The analysis also highlights that more recent generations gain weight faster than previous ones and that obesity appears earlier , which increases the risk of complications such as type 2 diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular diseases and multiple cancers at earlier ages.
Gakidou therefore argues that action is needed. “Governments and the public health community can use our country-specific estimates of the stage, timing and speed of current and projected weight transitions to identify priority populations that experience the greatest burdens of obesity and require immediate intervention and treatment, and those that remain predominantly obese and should be primarily targeted with prevention strategies.”
For example, in high-income countries, about 7% of men born in the 1960s were living with obesity at age 25, but this figure rose to about 16% for men born in the 1990s, and is projected to reach 25% for men born in 2015.
Source: Elmundo.es
Author: Pilar PérezMadrid
Date: Updated Tuesday, March 4, 2025 – 02:38
Link: https://www.elmundo.es/ciencia-y-salud/salud/2025/03/04/67c60c4fe85ecea7788b457d.html
Note: The Nutrigenomics Institute is not responsible for the opinions expressed in this article.
PHOTO FROM PIXABAY.
